The Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head results in the last 5 matches clearly highlight the Bundesliga sides’ goal-scoring trends. In terms of scoring, SportPurse predicts both teams will score because they have lethal finishers in their lineups.
Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction and Tactical Analysis
Mainz’s solid defensive shape and high pressing intensity will make it hard for Bayer Leverkusen to create scoring opportunities. However, Leverkusen will take advantage of the spaces created by their wingers and fullbacks’ tactical movements.
Carles Martínez Novell’s 4-2-3-1 system has seen the 2023/24 Bundesliga champions score 10 goals in their first four matches of the German league.
Mainz and Leverkusen have won two matches and have the same number of goals scored, while conceding six and five goals respectively in four games. Leverkusen’s main advantage going into this match is that they’re more clinical, having scored over 1.5 goals in their past four league games.
With both sides in good scoring form and looking at their past five matchups, SportPurse favours Bayer Leverkusen to beat Mainz 3-2.
Mainz hosts Bayer Leverkusen in Round 5 of the Bundesliga at Mewa Arena in Mainz on Saturday, 10 October 2026. The clash kicks off at 15:30 (SAST).
Probable Lineups: Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz Probable Lineup vs Bayer Leverkusen
Urs Fischer will probably not make any tactical changes to the starting lineup that defeated Borussia Monchengladbach before the international break.
In-form stars including Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz, and Kaishu Sano are expected to keep their places in the starting lineup. Becker and Tietz have been clinical in front of goal and will lead Mainz from the front.
Sano will play a supporting role to the two strikers. He can create goal-scoring opportunities and may even provide an assist in the match as he has done recently. Phillip Mwene is also one of the tactically gifted midfielders who can score or assist at any given time.
Mainz probable lineup vs Bayer Leverkusen (3-5-2): Schwolow; Posch, Gruber, Potulski; Caci, Amiri, Sano, Jae-Sung Lee, Mwene; Tietz, Becker.
Bayer Leverkusen Probable Lineup vs Mainz
Patrik Schick has been one of the consistent performers at Bayer Leverkusen this season. The side’s leading goalscorer will play his usual role as a lone striker.
Schick’s role in his side’s system doesn’t just demand that he score goals, but also that he put pressure on defenders who try to build from the back. He also holds up the ball, allowing his side’s attacking midfielders to join him in attack.
Miguel Gutiérrez has also been in superb form since joining Leverkusen from Serie A side Napoli on 5 August 2026. The Spanish left-back not only defends, but also helps his side’s attackers.
Gutiérrez has already proved his worth by scoring and providing crucial assists with his accurate crosses and decisive passes. Ibrahim Maza will also keep his place in the starting lineup. His number 10 role sees him link Leverkusen’s midfield to Schick.
Bayer Leverkusen probable lineup vs Mainz (4-2-3-1): Fiekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutiérrez; Fernandez, Garcia; Diaby, Maza, Moreira; Schick.
Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: Head-to-Head Trends of the Last 5 Matches
Mainz’s head-to-head trends against Bayer Leverkusen show that Urs Fischer’s team has lost three of the last five matches and drawn two.
Fischer’s side has scored seven goals against Leverkusen in their previous five encounters, while conceding ten.
Interestingly, Carles Martínez Novell’s visiting team has kept just one clean sheet against Mainz in their five recent clashes.
The Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture has seen over 1.5 goals in four of the past five matchups, with over 2.5 goals scored in three of the encounters.
In terms of corner kicks, the fixture has seen over 7.5 corners in four of the last five meetings, with Leverkusen winning the most corners in four matches.
Below, SportPurse zooms in on the head-to-head results of the last 5 matches between Mainz and Bayer Leverkusen, from 2024 to 2026.
Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen rescued a point at the eleventh hour in a tense Bundesliga encounter at BayArena on 28 February 2026.
Mainz’s Sheraldo Becker broke the deadlock in the 67th minute, assisted by Paul Nebel. However, the hosts salvaged a point when Jarell Quansah levelled the score in the 88th minute. Off the bench, Christian Kofane provided a valuable assist, ensuring his side drew 1-1.
From 12 shots, Leverkusen had five on target. The visitors took four shots on target from eight shots. The hosts won six corner kicks, while Mainz won two.
Mainz 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen
In one of the highest-scoring Bundesliga matches, Bayer Leverkusen edged Mainz 4-3 at Mewa Arena on 18 October 2025.
Alejandro Grimaldo scored a brace in the thriller. He opened the scoring in the 11th minute by converting a penalty. Christian Kofane then doubled the visitors’ lead in the 24th minute, assisted by Ernest Poku.
Jae-Sung Lee pulled one back for Mainz in the 34th minute, but his goal inspired Leverkusen to push for more goals. With his second of the match, Grimaldo extended the visitors’ lead to 3-1 in the 45+3 minute. Jonas Hofmann provided the assist.
The scoreline did not stop the hosts from going forward, and they were ultimately rewarded in the 71st minute. Nadiem Amiri converted the spot-kick, reducing the deficit to 3-2.
Martin Terrier also registered his name on the scoresheet, scoring Leverkusen’s fourth goal in the 87th minute. Three minutes later, Armindo Sieb made it 4-3, assisted by Amiri. However, Leverkusen held their nerve in a lengthy stoppage time and ultimately won 4-3.
Leverkusen, who were humiliated in the Champions League, had eight shots on target from 20 shots, while Mainz had four on target from 12 shots. The visitors also won three corner kicks, while the losers took two.
Mainz 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Despite having three goals disallowed, Mainz drew 2-2 with Bayer Leverkusen in a controversial Bundesliga clash at Mewa Arena on 17 May 2025.
Mainz scored twice in the first 34 minutes, but both goals were disallowed after VAR reviews. Paul Nebel finally put the hosts ahead in the 35th minute, assisted by Nadiem Amiri.
Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick put on a stellar performance in the second half. Schick converted from the spot in the 49th minute, levelling the score to 1-1. He then put the visitors ahead in the 54th minute, assisted by Aleix Garcia.
However, Jonathan Burkardt equalised for Mainz in the 63rd minute. He scored a penalty goal. An unfortunate Stefan Bell thought he had won it for Mainz in stoppage time, but his goal was disallowed for a handball after a VAR review.
From 20 shots, Mainz had six on target. Leverkusen, who sacked Erik ten Hag in September 2025, had four on target from seven shots. The hosts also won seven corner kicks, while the visitors had three.
Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen edged Mainz 1-0 in an intense Bundesliga encounter at BayArena on 14 January 2025.
After a handful of saves from the visitors’ goalkeeper in the first half, Alejandro Grimaldo finally broke the deadlock in the 48th minute. His goal ensured the hosts bagged three vital points.
Bayer Leverkusen had nine shots on target from 20 attempts, while the visitors had four from seven shots. The hosts also won eight corner kicks in their narrow win, while Mainz had four.
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Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen edged a ten-man Mainz 2-1 in another Bundesliga thriller at BayArena on 23 February 2024.
Granit Xhaka scored one of the fastest goals of his career when he opened the scoring in the 3rd minute. However, Dominik Kohr scored one of the fastest equalisers in the Bundesliga in the 7th minute. Silvan Widmer provided the assist.
Robert Andrich restored the hosts’ lead in the 68th minute. Florian Wirtz, who has joined Liverpool in the Premier League, provided the assist.
The referee then reduced the visitors to ten players, sending off Jessic Ngankam for a serious foul in the 80th minute.
Out of 18 shots, Leverkusen had seven on target, while Mainz had four from 13 shots. The hosts also won 11 corner kicks, while the visiting side won only two.
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For a live score of the Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture and a detailed match timeline, including scorers, cards, and substitutions, visit our live scores page.
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